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| Percentage of Respondents by Domain |
The UK's FutureBook 2010 Digital Publishing Convention wrapped up a few weeks ago in London, and today the top results of its industry survey were posted (the full 30-page report is £57, even though all responses were provided online for free). The report provides some insight into current thinking on the digital transformation among industry insiders. With 2575 respondents - 64% of whom hail from the UK - the chart at left shows the breakdown by industry domain, with publishers making up the largest share at 46%, and agents the least, with just 2% responding. Booksellers and libraries together account for a full quarter of the data provided, while authors represent less than either of these alone, with just 9% (of whom I was one).
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| Percent That Sell in Digital Format |
With that proviso, here are some of the more interesting facts that emerge. Firstly, the growing divide between publishers and traditional booksellers was made dramatically clear by this statistic: 85.3% of publishers have embraced the digital format, while just 36.7% of booksellers have done so. The obvious result of this is that publishers are forced to place more emphasis on online outlets and less on traditional retailers, much to the latter's detriment. This is simply a matter of distribution efficiency, and is one of the primary reasons for the recent success of ebooks: the cost of delivery and returns (not to mention storage of physical inventory) has always been the largest factor in the cost of print editions, and the subsequent success or failure of brick-and-mortar stores. This is one of the main reasons why Google was able to entice nearly every major trade to come on board their eBookstore in the end. Additionally, from the reader's perspective, instant delivery and virtually unlimited selection are significant factors in digital's ascendancy. The fact is that conservative trade publishers are finally beginning to see the advantages of selling a product they don't have to stock or ship, a factor Amazon discovered years ago, but brick-and-mortar stores have yet to deal with.
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| % of Respondents Who Buy eBooks |
Here's a statistic which clearly highlights that disparity: in 2009 just 18% of industry insiders said they had purchased a book in digital format, while the figure this year jumped to 47%, a 161% increase
within the industry itself. The equivalent numbers for those who said they had
read an ebook are slightly less striking, but still revealing: 47.2% had at least read an ebook in 2009 while 79% had done so by 2010, a 67.3% increase. That's nearly 80% of book industry figures who have at least dabbled in digital this year. The importance of this cannot be overstated, as it points out how the print industry itself is embracing the digital revolution, a key factor in making this
the watershed year for ebooks. Unless, and until, the industry itself accepts the change, that change is bound to be slow, and often painful. With the realization made, that transformation will be swift and conclusive.

With that said, here is what publishers and booksellers predict will occur in the coming years: overall the majority foresee ebooks making up at least 11-20% of the market in four years' time (it's already at 10%), with 29% of UK publishers and 26% of booksellers making this claim for only moderate growth. Curiously, 16% of US and 13% of UK publishers responding think there will be no further growth in digital at all, that we have reached the plateau, while a handful of lunatics clearly not in touch with the current trends think digital will fail altogether - most of these being traditional booksellers, with 20% of these predicting a digital decline in which ebooks lose significant market share in the next four years. This just goes to show you how oblivious some (soon to be unemployed) people can be.
Meanwhile, a full 25% of US publishers responding see ebooks dominating with more than a 50% market share, while 22% predict a 21-50% share (mind you, only 15% of the survey responses were from US publishers, so this is likely less conclusively representative of US industry views overall than the UK results, which, however, reflect a similar 23% for the 21-50% category). Interestingly, US responses were split fairly evenly among the upper ranges, while booksellers themselves were entirely unable to envision a future where digital comprised more than a 20% share. With an onslaught of new and improved reading devices poised to flood the market in the coming months (and a wealth of new e-readers on Christmas morning), I would hazard to say this is a tragically conservative mistake, and one which may catch the brick-and-mortars with their proverbial pants around their ankles. Here, ironically, the booksellers may be right in one thing: their own market share will dip into the single digits in the coming years.
[NOTE: don't ask me what the "Other" category is all about: with choices from 1% to >50% offered, "Other" can only mean "None" or "All" - neither of which is probable, and yet, perplexingly, 21% of booksellers chose this option. Go figure.]
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| Winners & Losers in the Digital Age |
And here's what the result of all this fuss will be: traditional booksellers, libraries, and literary agents will be the foremost losers in the digital transition, with publishers, online retailers, authors and book buyers all coming out ahead. The obvious caveat in this is in the ability - or inability - of each of these to adapt to new conditions. Libraries, for example, while traditionally slow to change (due both to budgetary restrictions and overtly conservative leadership entrenched in long-outdated practices), are making some strides in creating new digital lending programs that at their best can enable and promote literacy among a whole new segment of the populace, such as the homebound and impoverished, or the millions who live in rural areas with no access to public or academic institutions. Implemented with intelligence and vision, libraries could in fact flourish in the digital age.
A second, more intriguing issue is brought out in this study, and that is the general shift in roles among the various constituents of the literary industry. Agents, for example, are rapidly becoming irrelevant and unnecessary middlemen as the gap between the author and the reader closes, with both the retailer and the authors themselves taking on many of the tasks formerly allotted to the agent, such as negotiating royalties and brokering contracts. With standardized agreements between authors of digital books and the online outlets who provide them to their readers, both the agent and the traditional publisher are rapidly becoming antiquated. You'll note that of the responses given in this final chart, the most certain - that is, the only ones in the 90+ percentile range - are that online retailers will win (including Amazon, Apple and Google) and traditional booksellers will lose. You can surmise for yourself which category Barnes & Noble and Borders fall into.
For some truly insightful analysis of the latest trends and future projections, read Peter Ginna's post over at Dr. Syntax yesterday titled
Why We Should Get Ready for a Plunge in Print-Book Sales and Tim Spaulding's post at LibraryThing on
Feedback Loops in eBook Success. Nancy Herther has also put up a fairly thorough evaluation of Google's newest venture, titled
Google's eBookstore Takes eBooks to the Next Level.